Calculating pip profit from the first signal entry to end of wave. Negative numbers, of course, for the entries that occur at the end of the wave. There were a few (<10 or so) that had a “valid entry” but occurred near the end of the wave anyhow, so the potential was quite low. The overall summary of this single aspect is roughly: 98% of the time if you take the first signal that appears in the true wave, there is a 70% chance to make at least 5 pips. Seems okay, but is missing the possibly large error that the system would require assumption of where the current wave start point is. Sometimes one would perhaps think that a UR is starting when it’s really just a small bounce in a continuation DT.]
The upside is that the large majority of the profits are in the over 25 pips category, suggesting that overall, this TCD does give the correct signal about where price can go. I think this is an okay start depending on what I can add on to it, I still need to:
Look at the other two scenarios: oversold in down moves and overbought in uptrend moves
Look at the TCD crosses or create a new TCD to interact with this one.
Haven’t quite worked on confirmation statistics, working on a couple of extra parts for now before bringing it together. Considering that catching retracements are easier than extensions, I think it’s important to work on the safest entry first.
To be specific, this is where the specific price, low in this case, lands within a single bar. Because of this I don’t think 5% is very different than 10%, maybe like 3-6 pips or something, but I think looking at the 25/50/75 marks are worth something just for eyeballing.
The extreme of the swing bar occurs within 75%, or close to 80%, of 1 side of the 50-50 line, the lower half. This is nice as it creates high probability zones, but still problematic and currently not as useful because there are a LOT of them.
I’m noticing that the extreme bar, if you trace it to the left, it seems to be very close to or in the wick of another bar.. Considering the 1/4 1/2 1/4 rule, I wonder why I feel like I’m seeing it a lot. I’m also noticing that ends tend to appear in areas where there is “air” or a portion of right-side transience. (there’s also a TCD reversal at that swing point)
Back to work..
Edit: about a 50% probability that the extreme is occurring inside a wick..