Category Archives: Rabbit Hole

Rabbit Hole Series #2 extended

in trend
Some pictures from the H1

Can’t quite get the logic correct to get all my numbers to update live time, but I do have a good way to create these graphs historically to check multiple time frames, various h values, and the like. This expands the possibilities I can measure and cross check, and perhaps follow SBs advice on using an MTF approach. I’m not sure if excel is better suited for checking these things compared to MT4, but one certainly has to be clever in how to organize and pull the data to check for hard proof that these concepts actually work.

I currently don’t know which levels (70/30, 75/25, 80/20, etc) are better. I think to better capture these opportunities though, I want to expand the average length of each wave (more potential).

extended

Giving clues on in-trend pull backs and end of trend exhaustion.
I’m noticing that the signal is usually slightly early; A long signal usually has a one more dip low, and a short signal usually has one more push up.
Enough cherry picking, time to try to find a scientific way to analyze all of this.

 

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Rabbit Hole Series #2

Trying to build a basic sort of momentum indicator.
I think I may have to revisit the premise of how I’m building it (when I can “see” it) but I’m in the baby stages atm.
The more tailored the tool is, the more wiggle room I have to make a tool that is one-dimensional. That is, normally if the tool needs to determine where price is going, then it needs to distinguish both long and short, as well as strength. But if I already know the direction, then I only need it to determine strength.
Specifically, when comparing the accuracy of an indicator that giving long signals, I don’t need to check a DR (down retrace)  against DT UR and UT, only against DT.

The blue line is a measure of C-PL, and the red line is a measure of PH-C. Then I modded the values using a sort of “strength” multiplier based on the TAC TCD (H-PL vs PH-L). A question that I was wondering is if price makes a move in which the bar prints a downward pinbar like so:
pinbar
Should price be considered bullish or bearish? How does context matter in this case? If price is already moving down, do I consider this a “slowing bear”, and thus bullish? If price was moving up prior, do I now considering this new strong selling action, and this bearish? If the context matters, (which logically it should?..) that would mean that the strength multiplier needs to also be multiplied by.. the strength of the strength multiplier?..

Imagine it this way.. if bull movement is A, and bear movement is B, then the strength of A would be A/(A+B), and the strength of B would be B/(A+B) (that’s one possibility at least). But if the context of the current strength matters, then the strength of A would now be something like [A/(A+b)] * Y, where Y is equal to the slope or average of past strength.. or some other indicator would need to indicate the strength multiplier Y to create the current strength, to then be used to measure the actual strength of price. Oy.

DR2 DT2

..which one is which? I couldn’t really tell the difference. Accounting for natural bias I don’t think that if these were mixed together, that I could separate them back out. Normally I would expect (or hope to produce) that the blue line is measuring bull strength, and the red line is measuring bear strength. Thus whichever is on top shows the current dominant vector, which the other line fighting to overtake the current direction. It just doesn’t work though.  But there was something interesting that I missed the first time, which shows here:

oscillate

What I noticed is that (after the 4th rendition), that the red line does a pretty good job of following price. Usually not something to be excited about, but I did manage to also get price shrunk into a 0-100 oscillator with a bell curve.

bell curve

So disregarding the first couple points of each wave which are distorted due to having too few data points, I may be able to detect price extremes using it. The issue now is what to do with the blue line..It’s not perfectly inverse, so perhaps there’s something to look at in the spots where they differ.

Here’s one example of printing an extreme (over filling?) to give a short signal when price actually has plenty of room to move down.

oscillate

The Rabbit Hole Series.. #1

I’m going to see if I have enough “creativity” in me to start a new category on my blog that’s basically going to be offloading a bunch of random output I get from various tests in the Signal Bender realm. Normally these things would be filed until statistics or something but until I get something “real”, I’m mostly posting to help myself keep track of what I’ve tried and what I’m working on, I understand most people will not be able to follow. I still plan on posting some stuff that I think more people will be able to digest; let’s see how deep I can make it this time..

Right now I’m working on RT/Omega relationships both pinned and unpinned to swings. pinning is definitely like “forcing” but it kind of creates a fixed number of relationships which can be useful if I know what i’m hunting for.

I’m trying to spend more time with each result and studying it, rather than jamming out the numbers and moving on. This one is okay but has it’s obvious flaws. I almost feel like I need to create a new metric to analyze these more efficiently and quickly..

gap 1

gap2