Haven’t quite worked on confirmation statistics, working on a couple of extra parts for now before bringing it together. Considering that catching retracements are easier than extensions, I think it’s important to work on the safest entry first.
To be specific, this is where the specific price, low in this case, lands within a single bar. Because of this I don’t think 5% is very different than 10%, maybe like 3-6 pips or something, but I think looking at the 25/50/75 marks are worth something just for eyeballing.
The extreme of the swing bar occurs within 75%, or close to 80%, of 1 side of the 50-50 line, the lower half. This is nice as it creates high probability zones, but still problematic and currently not as useful because there are a LOT of them.
I’m noticing that the extreme bar, if you trace it to the left, it seems to be very close to or in the wick of another bar.. Considering the 1/4 1/2 1/4 rule, I wonder why I feel like I’m seeing it a lot. I’m also noticing that ends tend to appear in areas where there is “air” or a portion of right-side transience. (there’s also a TCD reversal at that swing point)
Back to work..
Edit: about a 50% probability that the extreme is occurring inside a wick..