Long story short, I really tried to get the binaries off the floor but I couldn’t. I think I need more data and more experience to pick out really specific areas of the market that I can win in. Until then, back to the old.
Taking a break was nice because when I came back I had a lot more ideas about what I wanted to research. Some of it might be old stuff that I just forgot that I’ve done before, but to me that means I just didn’t work on it long enough to really remember what kind of stats it yielded.
I’ve been looking though old charts and trading on a small account and I think I can reach a reasonable return on a consistent basis as it is. However I’d like to refine it because I find myself asking statistic questions about a certain pattern when I could actually find out the number for myself!
So, hopefully in these next few weeks and months, I’ll be able to be more productive, both in trading and in life, and crank out more stats.
Here are a few things I noticed and wanted to look more into.
- We know that trends have a decent edge in themselves to continue
- Trying to pick the tops and bottoms is actually not that bad of an idea if you can find the right balance between probability of success and expected R:R
- The current pattern that I’ve been using to pick tops and bottoms performs much better in picking retracements bottoms rather than trend tops (in an up trending market)
- That is, retracement swings tend to be more obvious, quicker, and easier to pick compared to trend lengths
- Aka, where price is not likely to go is easier to discover compared to where price may likely go, within a retracement/expansion context
- Trend moves tend to show the classic breakout, congestion, breakout move