Some notes

Usually I just do this on a notepad saved locally, but sometimes people like reading them 🙂

Premise: check to see where edge is, and during the process, see what needs to be improved.

Current numbers to keep in mind:

  • -LG pivots: daily, weekly – independent pivots. If possible, target as safe exits. Safe SL too.
    -Maybe work on building a position during the week with the ultimate loss at the weekly LG pivot?
  • -5 bar fractal – 24hr fractal (26 bars?) If these occur in specific spots, they are more likely to work.. But which spots?
    • -Time spots. If I only take specific time spots, I will miss out on some trades
    • -Retracement spots. Pure numbers are too vague. Statistically, the best spots to reload are anywhere before 70% retracement of the full range. Perhaps use a reversal trade in those spots? “Once you’ve discovered that you’re in the wrong direction, get into the correct direction”
  • Time element +2 hour buffer from previous wave
  • Natural areas of continuation
  • Likely weekly PA
  • Price has some possible areas of turning based on previous projections

Questions:

  • What is strong on a “entry signal” basis, the 5 bar fractal or time? Or 2 bar time fractal? The biggest issue with the 5 bar fractal break is that the size is too big.. does it need to be?
  • Probability of a time element failing if it meets the requirements?

 

Test:

  • Accuracy of 5 bar breaks to predict next wave
  • Accuracy of 5 bar breaks to predict some retracement or projection (maybe projection of the 5 bar range or current range)
  • Accuracy of 2 bar time fractal to predict next wave
  • Accuracy of 2 bar time fractal to predict some retracement or projection (what range to use?)
  • Accuracy of 5 bar breaks with a time element as well to predict next wave
  • Accuracy of 5 bar breaks with a time element as well to predict some retracement or projection (retracement of the current range)

Probability of completion if trend+retrace+5 bar fractal+”defense” of a level=?

If I’m going to be using the LG pivots, then each of those tests must also take the current 1 day, 2 day, or weekly pivot into account..

A wave cannot shift until PTZ8 is met at the very minimum.

 

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