I think this, along with time, are the two biggest concepts to explore. They should be done together, but sometimes I wonder if I even have enough data to make a statistical inference with how many possibilities there are when you use as many categories as there are possible to separate possibilities! Hmm.
My first test here was to look at the probability for the next wave type to be a continuation or reversal wave. The numbers here look a bit better (stronger) I think, and this may be due to the results inherent “HTF” seeking categorizations, although with how it blends waves together. Whether this is good or not, I don’t know! We’ll see as I progress.
When we look at the numbers this way, the probability for the next wave set to be a continuation wave is 66%. quite high! Trend trading trend trading trend trading. It’s suggesting that the biggest issue to over come is getting out of positions that will ultimately fail (33%). Since the base line is 67/33, all probabilities must be compared to that. Any numbers above 67 are favoring continuation moves, while any number lower than 67 suggests increased probabilities for the move to fail. It looks like in general, as long as the retracement is no larger than 66%, the move is favored to continue. Interesting stopping point, somewhat close to 61.8.