Completed wave sequences! These are “real”, or taking actual price into account. The difference between the two is that one is looking to forecast the next 3 leg wave, and the second (this one) is looking to forecast where price is going.
This picture is only showing part of it because throughout the years, there are a LOT of different wave types, especially if the first wave is large and price retreats into a range.
Only counting single waves
Hmm. Kind of interesting and reaffirming a common theory. Price that is in a particular direction tends to stay in that direction. That edge remains 60%, which is what I’ve been looking at in previous studies. Secondly, price that does not make a breakout (continuation) will make a reversal. This also seems to be true from the above stats. The second set includes all trend strings. If the string is TEFSETE, the first will record just that, the second one will record TEFSETE, as well as TE. This means that the second method has a tendency to pick up additional strings in areas that are, in reality, flats within the major trend swing. What this translates to is more time, since every letter is equal to x time length, and more letters=more time. Thus, more time spent not breaking out=more potential for reversing! Neat.
I think now that I need to run some additional studies on the movements themselves, and then lower time frame analysis will definitely be required as well because calculating swings this way leaves a much higher chance of “truely” seeing the higher time frame.
Perhaps this more “complicated” way also provides more clarity and precision by also being more forgiving.