Possible next steps

I haven’t been doing much work recently because I’ve been trading! It’s a bit shocking for me, as it’s something I haven’t been this active about it in over a year. I’ve done my best to recall all the little things I’ve done since I started this blog and put them to use as I enter the market. My original plan when I started was to have a core probability for price to reach specific points at any point in time. Surprisingly, what I have now isn’t that far off! Although, given the nature of modeling, we can never be too sure that our probabilities are accurately forecasting the next move. I’ve put together what use I have been able to gather from SB (not much unfortunately, still working on that..), transient bars, transient waves, common daily and weekly play outs, weekly gaps, etc. I’ve been pretty satisfied with out the trades turned out, although I’m only on my 3rd week so I will have to wait and see.

Moving on, there are a few major hurdles I’d still like to solve, and I’ve begun pondering something that I never thought I would: Elliott waves. I absolutely loathed the damn hindsight painting, but I thinking understanding where it is wrong and right can provide clues for improving my own wave work. I had the pleasure of having some correspondence with an elliottician, and I must say it is interesting to see the way people have made it work. It’s currently in theory phase so I may not get the project off the ground (like many before it) but I think it would be quite a unique idea that I don’t think many have thought of.

 

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4 thoughts on “Possible next steps

  1. Fred

    I dont share your enthusiasm for Elliot waves but i too have ventured where i thought previously was a no go area and that is with Harmonics and Gartley Patterns.

    Early days but it could be promising – ever spent much time there? and if so what was your impression. The reliability of the Gartley is well documented and signals are predicative and so allow pending orders well in advance.

    Reply
    1. lgtrader Post author

      Hey Fred,

      Thanks for stopping by!
      I have to agree that the prospects of elliott wave are not particularly exciting. I don’t actually think I’ll be able to get out of the design phase, but I’ll have to look into it more.
      Gartleys, fib levels, and things of that nature are things I have very little knowledge of. Along with elliott(!), they’re things that I never paid much attention to previously because I just didn’t think they worked or made sense. I’m only working on elliott if it offers me the opportunity to go full mechanical or very close to it. Traditionally this is not possible, but with the harmonic waves which I am looking at now, it may be slightly (and I mean slightly) more feasible.
      Yes, Gartleys seem to be one of the patterns that have shown success for some, so if you have a clever way to work on them, I would definitely try it out.

      Reply
      1. Fred

        I am making good progress on automating this idea.
        Currently I have a script that scans 28 pairs on all timeframes and identifies the developing Gartley patterns.
        I am then looking at these to see if they make sense as trades and then place pending orders at the levels projected.
        Too early to tell how successful this idea will be.
        What I am starting to wonder though is – does the Gartley Pattern still hold up. It was developed when FX trading and Algos were still a long way off, and based on trader sentiment. Does this translate to the FX market of today?
        Send me an email address and I’ll send you a few articles I found useful.

  2. lgtrader Post author

    Hmm I have wondered about the survive-ability of old patterns. In some sense it does have the benefit of a self fulfilling prophecy I would think. I suppose only time will tell, although the number of pattern trades today seem to suggest that it does still work to some extent.

    Again, I have little to no experience about the patterns (I just know they exist) so if you want to throw in a basic article or two I would not object in the slightest hah.

    Thanks!

    Reply

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