I keep talking about it because I like reminding myself about what’s important and what my focus is.
Here’s a snapshot of E/U 30m from today. I took a long at a pretty good spot last night and made a winner.
However, looking at this chart, I really see no reason to long. In fact shorts look quite good, due to the logic of trend following principles and probabilities. I took the trade due to some stats and figures that I had on the H1 frame, where the long looks more appealing. The difference between having the “winning” information and not is simply the difference between filters. If I gathered information about 30m stats and wave patterns I think I would end up with slight bias towards a short here. But, the important take-away here is that the cause of failure in the 30m is due to a successful follow through of the 1hr, or some model that is not known to someone purely looking at this 30m chart.
If a patterns success rate is 50%, we say there is no edge. However, if 20% of those failures are explained by another indicator, then we have a pretty good edge actually. This is the premise of why new traders stack indicators like stoch, macd, ma, etc in hopes that they can combine them to make a winning system. What I do now is really the same thing, except the success lies in creating indicators that “talk” to each other well, in a way that it can be shown.