Since I do consider this kind of an area that’s not fully explored and I understand the basic concepts well, I keep going back to transient bars. I end up describing them in so many different ways because well, it just kinda works out that way. Here i’m using them as momentum breaks, synced in line with pivots as stop points.
What I’m basically doing is trying to stack high probability odds with other high probability odds that sync well with each other.
Consider minimum profit criteria and what already favors us (stats for my own h value and TF, not universal):
1. The probability that a potential high or low PTZ bar is broken (trend continuing) is about 84.5-86.5%
2. The probability that the CLOSE of a PTZ is broken (trend continuing but not as ambitious) is about 97.00-98.00%.
3. The probability that the FIRST PTZ is the TZ of that trend move is about 12.50-14.50%
Further, consider this observation: In a subjective view, when the trend is down, how often does number 3 occur?
So when your trend “definer” is correct, how often do you get the opportunity to grab a couple of pips?
Might be ready for another testing run soon..