My original goal was to improve my stats, and in that sense I succeeded. However my other attempt which I thought was actually more in depth failed, while this one worked. Go figure. Either way, What I think I care about at the moment is being able to trade the trend states safely, as they are the ones that are most clean.
What I attempted was to link the swing movements to the eventual trend change direction. I tried to frame the “correct” trend direction based on the trend state movement direction, which I think is ok. The current problem I may have is not being able to correctly assess which of those trend movements is “true” and which are merely retracement movements in the larger context. In other words, is the trend wave moving up because the OVERALL trend direction is moving up? Or is the trend wave moving up actually just a larger retracement in the overall DOWN trend? Quantifying this is possible, but I don’t think I want to look deeper into it just yet. At least not directly.
What I keep saying I’ll do but have yet to actually complete is a way to:
1. map all price movements based on their transient/recurrent types
2. Extract and analyze all possible wave types on all h values
Even though it’s feasible to do this, (and actually not too difficult, mostly just time consuming) I haven’t done it yet because I feel like it’s a bit of a “hands off” approach to the market. I just see it as sequencing and playing the numbers after they’ve shown. It’s missing an element that I think lies internally within a structure of a wave which will give a hint about what will happen next. How to find it is still something I’m unable to come up with an abstract for..