There’s a fair chance that given the way I’ve calculated my base points, I don’t even have what I want. But I have an idea of what I’m looking for and we’ll see if the data brings any of it to light.
I’ve said it before I think, but I’ll say it again. All of the statistics I have done for the past year pre-transient waves have not provided an edge, but they have provided a lot of background knowledge that’s helpful to simply know how the market moves. Looking at data such as types of bars that follow other bars, times of extremes, etc. yield too large of a range to make a comfortable system out of, but they do show the limits that the markets usually follow. Putting these ideas together into the transient waves helped me create a better picture of what’s likely to happen, now in a scope that can actually be useful.
In going into the meta-data now, I really don’t know what to expect. It’s kind of a blank sheet again as far as what ‘limits’ the data contains, but hopefully, I can find something that confirms what the transient waves have so far shown. (semi) independent tools, same signal.
It’s been a long long time since I’ve cared about sharing a forecast, mostly because I never felt comfortable in my analysis, but I think this one has a fair shot actually. This single chart currently contains all of the little odds that I’ve found.
Even though this looks like a very normal down trend move, I believe the expectation to make another down move to be not very likely, at least not yet. For price to actually hit the box would be very cool, although I’m not betting on it. It’s the product of a potential edge that I haven’t even come close to verifying yet. What I do think is very likely though is for price to move up a bit, and create a new transient high, and then for the next transient low to be higher than the current one. A fractal low of transient bars.
orrrr we’re just heading into the 10% region.