Timing ideas for transient bars

Being able to incorporate MTF analysis will once again be one of the biggest challenges..

I do want to try to find some way to tackle the attract and repel theory that was discussed in the comments yesterday, but completing the abstract for that will be hard. It’s one of the ideas about market structure movement and theory that I’ve thought about for a while be have never really attempted because it seems really daunting to extract the correct information.

Here are some notes and ideas I’m thinking of:

-After h, what’s the probability that a recurrent/transient zone will be recurrent/transient again?

-Does this have to do with how zones are forming on higher time frames?

-Does price approach or leave transient zones in a particular fashion? (ideas of speed,released “energy”, pip movement, extension of the bar)

 

Until then..

It’s nice to see that price does form transients within a certain time frame. 80% of the time we can expect a new temporary extreme to be created within 3 days. Occurrence of tops is a nice stat as well and we can expect to see a pretty regular rhythm of top/bottom/top/bottom most of the time. Lastly we expect that when we do see the transient bar, it tends to occur in the pre-volatility stage, Asian to London, rather than London and New York. This was rather unexpected.

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7 thoughts on “Timing ideas for transient bars

  1. Relativity

    Eventually, you have to map this out on the chart. These stats are worthy for its odds. Hehe these stats are no surprise to me as you know the very reason why… 😉 e.g. Asian to German session tends to set the tone of the rest of the day

    Being a swing user, I see my 1st trend swing appear on this time block, which leads up to a 2nd swing retracement around London to pre-NY open, and finally, the 3rd trend swing on NY open. This completes the 1-2-3 trend pattern of the day. Depending on the direction, this maybe either a FZR to reverse overall trend OR an attempt to continue an existing trend on weekly or multi-day momentum.

    Reply
  2. Patrick M. White

    LG, interesting stats! I’ve also seen that transients tend to be fairly regular in appearing. I’m not sure what to do with that info though…

    Regarding the first point concerning the repel/attract idea, after a night’s sleep and some reevaluation, I was about to agree with you that it is probably biting off more than I should, as MTF + multiple patterns with different levels + probabilities at each level + multiple h values + basically an infinite # of possible future predictions == too many combinations. However, then I saw this where Eurusdd basically is doing this very thing with his analysis, though it looks a bit different than how I originally imagined it:

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7702277#post7702277

    hmm… To simplify, if you take out the MTF and limit the # of previous patterns to something more manageable, like 3-4 of each type of pattern, then it doesn’t seem like the permutations are out of control. But, how to combine all these inputs though???

    Reply
      1. Patrick M. White

        No idea. It almost looks like those “crack” levels are close to where those time frames stopped going up, or had a spike down in the up move. But my prices don’t match exactly. I doubt that those “crack” levels were all that was used to calculate the probabilities, or if they were even used due to the prices of the predictions.

    1. Patrick M. White

      When he says the time component is very important in making a prediction, I think I understand where he is coming from. If you use two different timeframes you might get two different predictions – each with its own time window, and they might be in conflicting directions / prices.

      Right now I have a ~90% probability that EU stays above 1.31984 until 3:30 and ~83% that it stays above until 4:45 AM Eastern time. These values will change over time. So hitting 1.31984 is a low probability event. When price hits these lower probability levels, it often does so with a large push (single big bar pushing through the whole level at once). On the way up, I count 4 low probability levels on M15 that price took out going from the bottom to the top. So low hitting probability doesn’t guarantee a turn at a given price. On the way up I count 3 times where price held above low probability levels, also on M15.

      Reply
      1. Relativity

        Its true that ‘if you use two different timeframes you might get two different predictions – each with its own time window, and they might be in conflicting directions / prices.’ But I treat this as a valid scenario; breakout pattern with 2 timeframes squaring off against each other until ‘one wins’.

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