I’ve been reading some of Eurusdd’s posts over at FF, as he’s quite impressive in my opinion. I’m drawn to people who show parts of systems or ideas of systems with some sort of “proof”, but never the whole thing. It’s really the ideas that I like. He also uses a lot of exclamation marks and shouts which is entertaining.
The “gain” from this post isn’t so much that, given that he’s a good trader, that price is likely heading down, but rather perspective of the market. What’s being done here is to know, at “x” criteria, that there is a probability attached to it. The wonder is what sets the criteria: possibly a trigger bar, price area, price ratio area.. etc. A lot of his posts making calls have this sort of “price will not return” or “price will return” attitude. “Levels trading”. It’s a cool concept to explore I think.
As for my states, I’m continually changing them. I think there’s a way to make use of the even when they’re created in hindsight; the issue I think atm is that my states change rather quickly; 50% mark at 20 hours. The benefit is that they do sorta show oscillation. A short flat box gives increased probability that the next flat will be longer.