I’m failing hard lol. I don’t think it can be quite done with the knowledge that I have now, and the scope I’m using. I’m trying a slightly different approach, which, if I can find an edge in it, will lead to a “complete” strategy quite easily.
This shows some stats for the rebuilt projection lines; One for up one for down. Using reverse cumulative frequencies, it looks like once price has hit the level, it’s good for another 50% of the level a safe (75%) amount of the time.