Post move bars

Chuggin along. Not sure how to tackle the next obstacle, and in the mean time I’ve been working on a few other things.

Magnitude. Magnitude and Omega fill are about finding and predicting ranges. Future range based on past range, but how helpful is it? Isn’t range more defined by “enough” vs “not enough”? I think the idea of range becomes a lot more useful if I start considering bounds, or projections, but the idea of tackling this seem daunting. Something I’m learning slowly is how well you have to design the thoughts (so meta haha) that lead to research. What I mean is that I have to have a better picture of what kinds of results I want to see, in order to design tests that will search for this. If I want to predict possible H/L points for the next day, how accurate do I want to be able to do so? The degree of accuracy will influence how I want construct the indicator.

 

Here’s a baby statistic that I ran on simple question. What happens after a “big” move? I’m initially defining a big move off of 2 thoughts: 1 being Relativity’s idea that 20 pips is a very manageable thing to do, and the other being 7thSignalTraders idea to not be too greedy about what you can get out of the market, and 50% is pretty safe. Therefore-40 pips is what I’m studying. It’s not very common that my results surprise me, but this one is actually pretty neat. On the left is all the data; The distribution of bar lengths. On the right is the length of the bar that occurs after a 40 pip bar. A length of at least 20 occurs well over 80% of the time. Wow. Could I simply wait for markets to actually move to cue me in on when to trade? That still leaves the monster task of knowing which direction to trade in, but as a standalone, this offers some potential timing ideas.

hmm

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s