Dear Journal #7

Pondering.

I’ve decided to give programming another shot. Something a bit more basic than the world of C’s. I simply need a tool that can handle some sort of data basing the way excel does, but with a bit more “smarts”. Yet I’m always attracted to VBA as I can do so much with it. It’s simple, fast, and capable of making big calculations.

I’ve briefly stepped away from making new statistics; we all need breaks sometimes. This blog is an online diary, I should use it like one more often and read the things I write. Things are always changing, new wisdom on old ideas birth more knowledge. Some routes are extinguished, new ones appear.

The week. That seems to be what things boil down to. I’m not bright enough to have figured that out by myself, but nudges in the right direction are always helpful from those who know more. My most recent statistic (which in my opinion has a lot of potential), agrees. The ABC waves in the 24 1hrx24 were able to pin down expansion structures to capture 90% of the movement into just 3 wave types with 2 subsets (up and down). Likewise, it appears that just 2 days capture at least 1 weekly extreme 88% of the time (with about a 11% overlap). These need to be pinned down further. If the week is King, I think I should use a forest to trees approach. Look for more supporting evidence in this area, then being to narrow it down. Let things grow. Vary. Average.

I likely won’t be touching a statistic for the next 2 months or so, but as always, I’ll be thinking.

Edit:

some additional thoughts. I should be a little better about updating things when things are ‘slow’ for me. As a role model of mine once said: “Just show up”. Do something everyday, or as frequently as time permits.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Goal: Remap the waves in the weekly structure. Start with the MM.

Pre-reqs/to-dos:

-In the original framework(daily structure), is there any proof of retracements? Previous studies seem a bit sloppy to me, it’d be good to re-do these. Treat each wave differently. ABCD only. the A wave will need special criteria.

-In the original framework(weekly structure), how big is each wave? Are A/B/C waves the same as D/E/F/G waves with the addition that the latter have wimpy left end tails? (Do the D/E/F/G waves have smaller A waves than the A waves from A/B/C waves?)

-Separate the MM of the week into 2 types, up/down. Keep in mind that though there may be no difference between the two, it creates less room to make errors when calculating reverse and retracement moves.

-Do a quick check on range movement. See if I can find an average. Avg range of 1 week? Avg range of 1 week x4? Avg range of 5 days x5? Is there a difference in these? Previous statistics seem to show that 1 day range averages 100 pips, yet 1 week range averages only 200. Hmm.

-Map out waves using 5x D1 and 120x 1Hr. It’s likely only 2 types will appear for 5x D1 (A and B wave). Currently I already know 120x 1Hr bars using only HH/LL in the weekly create too many wave types to be useful atm. Try to use new criteria to map using this method in light of new information concerning retracement numbers. Is it really about that 20-30% and 80%? Boxes? Probably boxes. Map in bins of 5%s.

-Find my own retracement number proofs. This may be done within the 24x 1hr framework I’ve been using already.

-Find consistency in internal coding. Should I map expansions in terms of the original wave size or of the current boss? What are the benefits/downfalls of each? I think the latter is the way to go, but this tool needs to “reset”. It seems best to be able to map the current boss as an expansion percentage of the original wave, but make sure the original wave isn’t too wimpy? Otherwise percentages could become too variable.

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