Another Glimpse at a weeks Movement

I may have done something similar to this before, but now it is better filtered, more accurate, and most importantly, more specific. Interesting results..

Reading the chart:
The max AND min of the week occur both on Monday 2.86% of the time. Obviously, given the weeks likely movement, the max and min of the week don’t happen on the same day very often; it basically only happens when a huge news move hits and sends the rest of the week into a contracting range. It appears that Mondays are a really important day here. Monday occurs as the weeks max or min over 50% of the time. In fact, closer to 75% of the time.

siomething

It’s showing the nature order of the market to trend (directional) rather than chop/congest (non-directional). One would assume that if the markets were more random, that the Monday-Thursday extremes would occur about as frequently as Tuesday-Friday (both having the same time span), but there is a huge difference in probability. There isn’t an easy way to trade profitably using this, but it’s quite useful to know.

All this is of course, pending the quality of my coding. What’s the main difference between this statistic and this one?:

https://lgtrades.wordpress.com/2013/07/11/week-max-min-statistic/

They’re built slightly different, but Mondays are much more pronounced in this second doing of the statistic than they were in the first. Why? The data is slightly different; One is built using daily data, and one is built using 1hr data. Additionally, I realized that they’re built using different hours and cutoffs for days. My hourly composed data is made with the 20:00-19:00 EST in mind, that is, if an extreme occurs anytime between 20:00-00:00 EST, I count that towards the next day. However, the daily data from the original statistic is made with the more obvious 00:00-23:59 EST.

CaptureIf you look at the “composed from daily” there’s a good bit of extremes occurring on Sundays. However, those Sunday extremes are more often than not occurring in the zone which my hourly composed data would consider it as a Monday. If you combine the Sun/Mon on the daily data, you get the chart on the far top right, which brings it up to ~29% as opposed to the 39% that I’m showing in my new statistics. Slightly better, but still a bit off. The Tuesday/Wednesday statistics are much closer together, and the Thursday/Friday stats are a bit off, which can now also be attributed to the hour differences in calculating extremes.

Upon settling these difference, something seems to stand out. It looks like in order to get the stats to match up, a large portion of the Monday extremes are actually occurring the window of 20:00-23:59 EST on Sunday, and likewise a large portion of the Friday extremes are occurring in the window of 20:00-23:59 EST on Thursday.

A week’s type does not seem to have an effect on the types of waves it may contain, either in type (A/B/C/D/E) or direction (HH/LL). I’ll continue to dig through and try preconditions.

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