First hour close forecasting ability

I didn’t expect much out of this one but it’s always worth a shot.

I’ve “completed” my data set for now; compiling all of the metadata I have into columns, now looking something like this:

new data

Still a long way to go.

Here’s the stat completed for today; it’s a bit difficult to explain in the concise “look at the labels” so I’ll go more in depth about what calculation I used.



I used 3 statistics:

First hour: This is simply the close of the first hour compared to the open. If the bar closed green, its recorded as HH (Higher High/bull). If the car closed red, its recorded as LL (Lower Low/bear)

Bigger: This essentially is the close of the day compared to the open. Same as above, recorded High/Low.

First: This is recording which side tops/bottoms out first. If the absolute max is reached before the absolute min of the day, it’s recorded as High. If the min is reached first, it’s recorded as Low.

Then the 2 stats I ran were:

If first hour= HH and Bigger=High OR if first hour = LL and Bigger=Low, record the value Same. Otherwise, record Different.

If first hour= HH and First=High OR if first hour = LL and First=Low, record the value Same. Otherwise record Different.

As for analyzing the data, there doesn’t seem to be too much there. There’s a slight edge for the first hour having some predictability as far as which move is bigger, which is nice. However if you think about it, the first hour close also gives a slight edge to that statistic anyway. By closing up in the first hour, it’s already given the “bigger” stat x pips in favor of the first hour direction. Maybe that says something about momentum ability?



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