Been a while since I’ve done some fx work. Unfortunately no real break through or new ideas. Here’s some stats I pulled out today that I’ve been half working on in the past week; Yesterday I took out some time to use some excel to properly extract the data points I wanted.
I wanted to look at some statistics regarding the “waves” that happen with respect to the sessions. The “Asian Wave” or “London Wave” I already see a lot of problems conceptually with this model but I thought I’d give it a try anyway. I’ll write those potential problems at the end. But for now, here is what the data looks at. I define the Asian wave as starting at the Asian open and closing at the London Open. Likewise, the London Wave begins at the London Open and closes at the NY Open.
The basic question asked is “how do the waves move in comparison to each other?”
The answer is a lot of coin flipping. I define contra as simply a close in the other direction. I just checked to see if the bars closed red or green without regards to magnitude. In more “wave” speak, I checked for the chances of AB, BC, AAA, ABC, ABB, AAB. I get nothin’.
Problems: It’s most likely the case that waves are forming in the middle of the sessions rather than right on the open. It would be too predictable to have stats like this show something. Of course, while we do expect London to move in one direction (over all) and NY to move in one direction, there isn’t something supporting NY moving contra to London. Instead what is possible is a retracement in NY contra to London, with a varying magnitude. Also, in looking at charts, I look at tops and bottoms of the sessions rather than opens and closes; this is probably another statistic I can work on.